Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-25 0.043463 0.049095 0.055351 0.062844 0.071616 0.081608 0.093920
2026-02-01 0.033489 0.040165 0.048152 0.058507 0.071721 0.088213 0.110662
2026-02-08 0.027855 0.035198 0.044578 0.057645 0.075716 0.100346 0.137379
2026-02-15 0.023606 0.031254 0.041618 0.057051 0.080098 0.114342 0.171325
2026-02-22 0.020509 0.028348 0.039576 0.057398 0.086090 0.132618 0.218720
2026-03-01 0.017957 0.025811 0.037650 0.057599 0.092135 0.153211 0.279325
2026-03-08 0.015512 0.023063 0.034962 0.056113 0.095231 0.170275 0.342678
2026-03-15 0.013071 0.019972 0.031248 0.052198 0.093173 0.177530 0.390848
2026-03-22 0.011722 0.018454 0.029900 0.052246 0.098838 0.203034 0.499136
2026-03-29 0.010748 0.017424 0.029233 0.053470 0.107451 0.239257 0.665499
2026-04-05 0.009765 0.016243 0.028110 0.053584 0.113860 0.273766 0.861214
2026-04-12 0.008880 0.015120 0.026922 0.053333 0.119514 0.309836 1.105788
2026-04-19 0.007973 0.013859 0.025311 0.051925 0.122220 0.340366 1.377087
2026-04-26 0.007096 0.012548 0.023415 0.049490 0.121574 0.360881 1.640700
2026-05-03 0.006556 0.011831 0.022648 0.049620 0.128448 0.413198 2.190916
2026-05-10 0.006085 0.011195 0.021958 0.049815 0.135812 0.474170 2.966284
2026-05-17 0.005715 0.010719 0.021555 0.050690 0.145941 0.556904 4.214211
2026-05-24 0.005369 0.010253 0.021103 0.051350 0.155849 0.649914 6.022146
2026-05-31 0.004967 0.009621 0.020172 0.050451 0.159884 0.718580 7.984341
2026-06-07 0.004484 0.008763 0.018589 0.047309 0.154148 0.727718 9.163641
2026-06-14 0.004233 0.008396 0.018161 0.047600 0.162656 0.837055 13.290813
2026-06-21 0.004053 0.008171 0.018057 0.048903 0.176364 1.003915 21.378114
2026-06-28 0.003842 0.007849 0.017662 0.049181 0.185820 1.157409 32.791350